Stock Market Perspective
This section has been a highlight of my quarterly client newsletters since
I started writing them in 1995. The primary objective is to be educational
rather than provide specific projections about what the market would be
doing in the next quarter or year. The range of topics has been wide with
a few recurring themes. The ones starting at the end of 2003 are posted
here. Most of the ones not posted are no longer relevant (I
seemed to have an early fascination with the presidential election cycle
and what it implied for the coming year) or have been covered in later ones.
The perspectives are Adobe Acrobat files. You need Acrobat Reader to view
or print them. It is probably on your computer, but if not, it is a free
download from Adobe's website.
When you choose one of the links, you may see a dialog box to save the
file or it may appear in your browser. If it appears in your browser,
the back button with bring you back to this page.
- 2016, Fourth Quarter: Pay Attention to Stock Market Forecasts?
- 2016, Third Quarter: Rate of Return Calculations
- 2016, Second Quarter: Iowa Political Markets
- 2016, First Quarter: Consumer Price Index
- 2015, Fourth Quarter: Reblancing: A Good Idea?
- 2015, Third Quarter: Four Principles of Decision Making
- 2015, Second Quarter: Is "Smart Beta" Really Smart?
- 2015, First Quarter: Are Negative Bond Yields Crazy?
- 2014, Fourth Quarter: Should Percent in Stocks be 100 - Age?
- 2014, Third Quarter: Insightful Article (link instead of perspective)
- 2014, Second Quarter: Bonds and Bond Funds
- 2014, First Quarter: Active Management vs. Indices
- 2013, Fourth Quarter: Replay of 1929?
- 2013, Third Quarter: New and “better” indicator?
- 2013, Second Quarter: Risk Allocation, a “Magic” Bullet?
- 2013, First Quarter: Bet Against Congress for Profits?
- 2012, Fourth Quarter: Digging into the S&P 500
- 2012, Third Quarter: Is a Romney Win Good for Stocks?
- 2012, Second Quarter: Enhanced Indexing Revisited
- 2012, First Quarter: "Real" Dow and S&P Returns
- 2011, Fourth Quarter: Lower Volatility "Index" and Fund
- 2011, Third Quarter: Is the Market a Ponzi Scheme?
- 2011, Second Quarter: Fund Performance Persistance
- 2011, First Quarter: Better Price/Earnings Ratios?
- 2010, Fourth Quarter: Calendar Based Investing Revisited
- 2010, Third Quarter: Interim Newsletters
- 2010, Second Quarter: "Flash Crash" and Trading Dangers
- 2010, First Quarter: Long Time, No "Correction"
- 2009, Fourth Quarter: The Wisdom of Jesse Livermore
- 2009, Third Quarter: Is the Secular Bear Losing Its Claws?
- 2009, Second Quarter: Peter Bernstein, 1919 - 2009
- 2009, First Quarter: Stocks vs. Bonds vs. Inflation
- 2008, Fourth Quarter: Mad About Madoff
- 2008, Third Quarter: Financial Crisis and Bailout
- 2008, Second Quarter: Bear Market Drops
- 2008, First Quarter: Conventional "Wisdom"?
- 2007, Fourth Quarter: Greek or Geek: Alpha and Beta
- 2007, Third Quarter: Scams and Dubious Claims
- 2007, Second Quarter: Better Ways to Index Revisited
- 2007, First Quarter: Real Estate Fund Trading
- 2006, Fourth Quarter: Calendar Based Investing
- 2006, Third Quarter: New High for the Dow
- 2006, Second Quarter: Better Ways to Index?
- 2006, First Quarter: Correlations and Diversification
- 2005, Fourth Quarter: Seven Deadly Sins of Investing
- 2005, Third Quarter: Absolute and Relative Returns
- 2005, Second Quarter: Bubbles, How Revealing?
- 2005, First Quarter: Importance of Active Management
- 2004, Fourth Quarter: January Barometer
- 2004, Second Quarter: Bulls, Bears, Cicadas
- 2004, First Quarter: (Non-) Efficient Market Hypothesis
- 2003, Fourth Quarter: Investing in “Secular” Bear Markets
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